浙财数经中心 Seminar31 张牧扬常任副教授（上海财经大学）

Blessing or Bane: Leader’s Absence, Political Selection, and Economic Growth

摘要：

In this study, we explore economic consequences of absence of local political leaders both during and after the absence. We note that China’s political system is characterized by interlocked movements of personnel, and local leaders go through a sophisticated procedure of selection and appointment before taking office. These institutional features provide a good opportunity for identifying of economic consequences of leader’s absence. Using data from 2009-2018 on city leader’s absence and applying difference-in-differences (DID), instrumental variables (IV), and propensity score matching (PSM) to address potential endogeneity of leader’s absence, we find that leader’s absence significantly reduces economic growth rate during the absence period, but local economic growth rate is higher during the new leader’s tenure in cities which experience leader’s absence before the new leader takes office. We then explore two potential mechanisms, compensation effect and selection effect, and find evidence supporting the selection effect. These results imply that the time spent on political selection is likely to be worthwhile in the long run even if it harms the economy in the short run. Our research adds to the knowledge of the role of political leaders, political uncertainty, and political selection in authoritarian states.

报告时间：2024年3月26日，上午10:00        

线下地点：经济乐动(中国)6-210会议室

主办单位：乐动、浙江财经大学数量经济研究中心

嘉宾简介：

张牧扬，上海财经大学中国公共财政研究院副院长，常任职副教授、博士生导师。2013年毕业于北京大学国家发展研究院，获理论经济学博士学位。目前的主要研究方向为地方官员治理、中国财税体制、地方政府债务、政府与社会资本合作（PPP）、政府预算等问题。先后主持国家自然科学基金项目2项、省部级课题3项；在Journal of Public Economics、Public Administration、Journal of Economic Growth、Journal of Comparative Economics、China Economic Review、《经济研究》、《经济学（季刊）》、《金融研究》、《财政研究》、《统计研究》等国内外权威和知名期刊上发论文二十余篇；承担或参与多项关于财税体制改革、经济结构转型、基础设施投融资、区域经济一体化的政府委托课题；2项决策咨询研究成果被收录于中央级内参，获国务院领导批示或采纳。